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The US have long been tired of supporting the war in Ukraine. The return of Donald Trump to power will increase the likeliness of an american deal with Russia over Ukraine. But is it time for negotiations ?
It would if both sides were willing to reach a "win win" peace agreement, and above all if the Europeans were in a position to negotiate separately with Russia. This is not the case. Therefore a peace agreement is unlikely but a cease fire could nevertheless take place in 2025
More than ever the war depends on american control over Nato and so the fighting will cease when the US stops financing Zélensky. In spite of their diplomatic flourishes the European can only be mere witnesses of a likely cease fire when Trump decides it . This may happen after he is inthronized as the new american president in January 2025.
A cease fire will not mean peace but a mere freezing of the situation on the front line. Exactly what happened in Korea in the fifties of the past century. The fighting stopped and endless fruitless negotiations began at Pam Mun Jong. They lasted for years until everybody got tired of talking for nothing.
The situation has been frozen ever since in spite of some fits of war hysteria, the last one when the North Koreans dropped bags filled with shit over South Korea. This is the kind of future Ukraine is heading to.
Unpleasant conclusion ? Yes indeed but would you rather continue to pay for a stupid firework that has already cost 200 millions dollars and one million casualties ?